1 How to cope with low-probability risks of large-scale catastrophes? : a critical examination of the Japanese nuclear “governance”*

German sociologist Ulrich Beck points out in his seminal book on risk, which is geared towards nuclear technology, recombinant DNA research, reproduction technology, and synthetic chemistry, that contemporary advanced sciences and technologies are running out of control. [Beck, 1986] Whether they are really running out of control or not, his diagnosis reflects and vividly brings out the acute but amorphous fear many contemporary people feel towards the present state of science technology. No doubt, new “risks ” (the potential of harms) that did not exist in earlier time have been created. [Adams, 1995: 180] New risks resulting from the rapid progress of sciences and technologies are distinct from older dangers, by virtue of their scale and nebulousness. In fact, such phenomena as radiation contamination, genetic recombination, and chemical toxicity, affect not only the life and health of present generations but also those of future generations in addition to the ecosystem as a whole. Their effects are not confined either to a certain specific life-space or to a specific historical time. Furthermore, such risks are, unlike many of the old dangers, neither visible nor touchable, at least for ordinary citizens: precision instruments and sophisticated scientific knowledge are required to fully understand their nature and probability. How is the government to cope with risks of this kind? Is trial and error an appropriate guide for policy choice? Or, is a more conservative approach recommended? With such questions that are at once practical and theoretical in mind, this essay focuses on the history o